Do 'big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour?

Combining Human and Computer Generated Forecasts Using a Knowledge Based System

1. PREFACE 'Consider mechanically integrating judgmental and statistical forecasts instead of making judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts …Judgmental adjustment (by humans) of (automatically generated statistical forecasts) is actually the least effective way to combine statistical and judgmental forecasts … (because) judgmental adjustment can introduce bias 1 (Mathews and Diamantopo...

Models for Product Demand Forecasting with the Use of Judgmental Adjustments to Statistical Forecasts

Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting

Accurate forecasts are crucial to successful planning in many organizations and in 2001 forty international experts published a set of principles to guide best practice in forecasting. Some of the principles relate to the use management judgment. Almost all organisations use judgment at some stage in their forecasting process, but do they do so effectively? While judgment can lead to significan...

Improving Forecast Accuracy by Guided Manual Overwrite in Forecast Debiasing

We present ongoing work on a model-driven decision support system (DSS) that is aimed at providing guidance on reflecting and adjusting judgmental forecasts. We consider judgmental forecasts of cash flows generated by local experts in numerous subsidiaries of an international corporation. Forecasts are generated in a decentralized, non-standardized fashion, and corporate managers and controller...

Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting

Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...